Categorized | Wiz Article

Is There A Closing ‘Window’ of Opportunity?

Posted on 18 May 2010



You have to be on one of either sides of the following coin. Either you believe that in the modern game with salary cap structures and league layout that dynasties can in fact exist or you must believe that the powers that be have ended the possibility of such practices. I personally am of the mind that under the current setup, dynasties can in fact occur but it is ridiculously tough.

For example, teams need some core ingredients. One is an impressive coaching tree and a head coach with plenty to prove himself. This allows a club to lose assistants to better jobs and still keep tacking on winning seasons. Second is that you need a system on the field that works towards a dynastic approach in that it must be able to allow turnover and still produce. Denver for example had a great system where low-round, lighter, ‘athletic’ OL were the core of its pass blocking and cutback/counter based running scheme that also worked wonders with lower round RBs. IND has won a title and been a top team for nearly a decade now despite never having a big investment at DT, a revolving door at OLB, and never over-investing at RB either. Such teams have a system whereby they can maximize a ‘lesser’ talent in a specific role and have it produce. Third is continuity and a design from the front office whereby you lock down key franchise players and refuse to overspend on the expendables. If you lose continuity, whomever steps in may differ in long-term vision and it’s that ongoing 3-4 years down the road type of plan that is needed.

That said, I don’t really think the 49ers have any of those. Singletary doesn’t have much of any offensive coaching set up and if tomorrow our DC gets a good job offer, we could be in trouble there too. I don’t think we have a system in place. If anything we are talent overloaded in some roles and having trouble putting it all together. We are nowhere near the point where we can start a cycle whereby we are winning, can keep at least 18 starters intact through the next 2 years and can start drafting for depth and future starters today.

That said, it made me wonder if our window of opportunity is incredibly small. If you don’t believe in the dynasty concept then you believe teams can bulk up and be good for short periods of time, at best, before the forces that be rip that said team apart. Is it possible that this team really is in a spot where we could have problems in only 2 seasons?

Look at the evidence.

CB: There is little doubt that CB Clements will be gone after 2010. His salary explodes for 2011 and for an aging CB, he will be too expensive too keep and may be too much of an elephant in the room(too uncomfortable to watch him slide down our depth chart each year) to extend and cut his salary. It looks like Bly is not returning and if he did it would not be for long. Harris is as good as done. Spencer is 28, K.Smith is 30, and James is 30. Paymah is our only real non-rookie depth that is not hitting the big 3-0 in the next 2 seasons. While Brown is only 24, he is one guy and still unproven. This unit lacks defined starters, has several veterans who likely won’t even make the active roster, and is shaky over the next 2 years. The need to add at least a 1st or 2nd round talent and/or a top free agent is extraordinary.

RB: Let’s make this one even easier. Gore turned 27. According to the traditional clock, he has 3 good seasons left in him at best. Given how RBs who have avoided the dreaded ‘400-carry curse’ and avoided major injuryies tend to unravel at record paces once they hit 30, Gore is no exception. Especially given his collegiate knee injuries, one can say that means his body is fresh and his knees have been solid. But he also routinely misses 2-3 games with ankle or foot injuries. Add that up to Coffee being less than extraordinary and not knowing what we have in Dixon as of yet, we have no real RB depth and our superstar talent could have only 2 or 3 good years left. So now we’re looking at a 1st or 2nd round RB in 2012 to be a good decision.

DL: Let’s assume we cannot extend Franklin. That leaves NT as a big key need for us in 2011. We can pray that divine inspiration strikes Sopoaga or that Balmer rounds into an excellent prospect as a NT this summer and upcoming season. Or be realistic that a top NT will be on our 2011 wish list. Also, look at our depth. Sopoaga may just get another extension as our versatile LDE/NT/DT guy. But what happens to the rest of our depth while we keep getting amazing seasons out of J.Smith at RDE and at 30, could see a slow down in the next 2 years. There is reason to believe we need at least 2 top rounders in the next 2 drafts to really add punch and sustain this unit.

WR: Yes we have Crabtree and Davis playing so well as a TE is key too but we lack depth. That 2nd WR who can still put up an 8-catch, 100 yard, 2 TD type of game as teams double down on our top 2 weapons isn’t present. This is especially noted because if we lose one of those top 2 weapons, it would kill our offense. It allows teams to lock down on our only other big receiver and the slippery slope begins there.  No real guarantees moving forward and yes, even a good 2nd or 3rd round WR in the next year or two would be excellent. Maybe Ginn will really shine as a #2 who can burn, we will wait and see.

OL: Let’s pretend it all works out. Davis is a stud RT, Staley improves at LT, Rachal picks up his game at RG and Iupati is a pro bowler at LG in his second year. That still said, I’m not holding my breath on Wallace and Heitmann is not getting younger. When Baas leaves and also likely an aging Wragge too…we will not have any interior OL depth. Plus, once Snyder is finally cut and Sims retires, even if Boone rises to the occassion, the need for perhaps a new starting OC needs to be mixed with a need for a swing OT and backup OG who can produce.

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1 Comments For This Post

  1. rojo11x says:

    I agree we are not the model of a dynasty waiting to happen. That being said, I don’t believe we are in a position to fall apart in two years, and we are better and suited for long term success moreso than we have been in the last 10 years.

    Where you see problems:

    CB: While I don’t know if we will be able to find another Walt Harris to pluck from another team and make into a probowler, I do think we can find servicable veterans as stop gaps if needed. Next year, we could easily take a 1st 2nd or 3rd rounder and still have decent depth for several years.

    DL: It could just as easily turn into one of our strengths. RJF could turn into a budding young NT to replace Franklin. Balmer could finally turn it on consistently and McDonald could stay healthy and reliable with again Smith.

    As for RB and WR, RB is one of the easier positions to replace, and we have the best depth at WR we have had in years and most of them are young.

    The one thing that will put us in a hole is QB. I know its cliche, but the QB is the most important position there is for long lasting success.

    Also, I believe we are in decent shape if one of our coordinators leave. Johnson is being groomed for the job for when Raye leaves and has some playcalling experience. Tomsula is a former professional football head coach and has lead a defense before.

    I am not saying its an ideal situation but i feel we have a better system in place in case of departures than we have had in years.

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