Am I really being hasty with such a question? well, last season we finished 8-8. Along the way, we beat our division winner twice and we launched several big comebacks in games that in previous years we would have been out of completely. We were one lucky throw from beating MIN, a superbowl team and we managed to harass one of the league’s best QB’s in Manning into a near upset of a playoff contender in IND. We had soem downturns, but when all was said and done we were a fringe playoff club that gave some of the best a run for their money.

After having what looks like a solid, successful draft towards improving our roster and what we can do on the field, how close are we? Are we still a wild-card round type of team or can we ride a weak division and favorable schedule(most of our toughest non-division games are at home) to as far as a bye and maybe a division title game…or more?

What reasons are there to be optimistic? First, our K is still incredibly accurate and can make the clutch 50-yarder, for now and we do still have a vey accomplished punter. Plus, last year we went 8-8 with absolutely terrible punt return numbers. While I don’t think Ginn is a 2 TD/all-pro return man, he is undoubtedly at least average. Plus, a smattering of talent from the rookie pool will compete for that job. Not to mention a world class long snapper. This makes for competitive special teams and it’s good special teams that help you win field position battles, minimize turnovers, and can provide a spark of momentum.

Second, we have what I consider to be an underrated pass rush. Yes, we lack one of those “16 sacks per year’ type of players but since when is that requisite? It gives offenses a man to single out and you’re also one injury from losing a big factor in your pass rush. I’m rather in favor of several guys like what we have now. We can bring in fresh legs and injuries have less of an effect and it makes our pass rush harder to predict. After, while Jared Allen and his counterpart may snag19 sacks, our top 3 OLBs who gather an average of 6 sacks a piece…18 sacks. Except losing Allen likely tanks his stats but those of the guys who got better shots due to him. If we lose an OLB…still 2 more capable of combining for a 12-sack effort.

Do we have an elite single rusher? No. But you can’t lie about a top 5 pass rush, especially when we did excellent jobs in some tough games on veteran QBs.

Third is our ground game can only get better. Gore is a stud workhorse who can make plays even as a WR. Coffee, I’m not giving up on him yet. His stats are horrible for sure but we telegraphed his usage to much and often teams had him pegged with a run blitzer just as he gets the ball. He has 2 guys in the backfield and a plugged hole i n most of the snaps last year. That said, I’m not going to downgrade the addition of blocking TE Byham and RB Dixon. Then add in the drafts blue ribbon OG talent in Iupati and a 1st round talent at OTas well. We added 2 quality movers and a specialist mover too. Oh and one heck of a possible steal in the later rounds at RB to boot. What more says “want to run the ball” more than adding a 1st round OT and OG on top of a big RB and the drafts 2nd most prestigious blocking TE?

Then there is our weaknesses.

Let’s just throw the biggest elephant in the proverbial room out there. Smith is not a proven QB, we have an  who lacks an ‘innovative’ reputation to say the least, we are facing a blocking change en-masse, and also we lack a deep, effective receiving crew. This normally sounds like a nightmare. In one sense, we do have WR  Crabtree who is expected to bloom and TE Davis established himself as a top weapon, even great and raw rookie blocking will beat pathetic veteran efforts, and Smith may yet prove himself effective. But it does make for one big offensive problem. Our WR depth has lots of question marks and on top of that we have questionable blocking mixed with growing rookie blocking.  This offense could just as easily fizzle towards the bottom 7 as much as it could sizzle towards the top 15.

The next biggest problem is the secondary. We don’t have any great safeties and could be relying on an upstart 4th round FS, a workout warrior 2nd round SS, a veteran head case SS, and a can’t-stay-healthy FS backup. Not to mention one of our CBs is on a huge contract that won’t last another year as is and the rest of our depth is either raw or aging. Yes, a CB like a Haden or Wilson or a top S would have been nice. But we do lack DB depth and we are gambling a bit on that front.

So where do we lie overall? With health and an offensive click and best case scenario I can see this team using a good schedule and weak division towards an 11 or 12 win first round bye. But if we have offensive troubles due to receivers, blocking, and/or the QB then we could see a near ‘09 repeat but I still envision a worst case scenario of a division win wild-card.

But we lack the veteran and deep DB corps mixed with an experienced offensive unit, even if it is one that does well in 2010, can work in the deep playoff games.