This is a slight redo of a post I made a week or two ago on the 49ers message board. Consider it updated and improved.
Idea #1: Extend CB Tarell Brown today.
Why It’s A Good Idea: Brown remains one of the many players next season who could be clamoring for a new deal. He had 2nd round talent and goosd middle 2nd round value and yet fell many rounds to us. He has earned minimal salary and almost no bonus as a result and has been a model 49er. He had some flashes as a rookie and yet hurt his knee and sat out most of the offseason to avoid surgery and played well last year, showing clear 3rd/4th CB potential. Now with Harris out (and even before it we could expect Harris and Spencer to be done [post ‘09), he would probably be a 2nd/3rd CB on our chart expected to be a starter…after 3 years of minimal pay. In short, a new deal will not be blockbuster but he is a young and capable CB we can expect to easily be a rock in our top 4 for the next 3+ seasons. This achieves two goals. The first one is it’s cheaper to extend him now, get him money now (moreso in the wake of Harris’s injury) and it gives us an outlet to stash away cap space. Sure the cap may expire, but I think owners will not take the chance and the majority of owners need one to compete, even if it is costly. So we can stash a solid 8M in the LTBE incentive loophole. Meanwhile, sign Brown to a new 4-year deal that includes 1M-2M base salaries, a 1M roster bonus up front, a 1M signing bonus, and has some 500k sized bonuses after year 3 and 4 that will convince us to extend him further at that time.
Idea #2: Release WR Arnaz Battle
Why It’s A Good Idea: This is a multi-edged concept. First is that the reality is that barring 2 serious, unexpected injuries by September to our WR corp, Battle has little chance of making the roster. We already have Bruce, Crabtree, Hill, and Morgan in the top 4. By virtue of experience and Hall of Fame ability, Bruce is an essential leader by example as well, he is not getting cut. Crabtree, our first rounder? Please. Morgan showed signs of being worth a #2 spot last season alone despite a power-sapping staph infection of top of a groin injury. Hill meanwhile looked so good at times running routes and making YAC moves that he looked like Bruce out there. Then comes in Jones, a guy we likely never would have signed if we knew that we had a shot at Crabtree. Regardless, Jones almost definitely has a spot. Rhat leaves Battle to beat Zeigler to justify a 6th roster spot. There’s a lot more to it than that. Let’s 2 of the top 4 go down then we wouldn’t be at worst, Jones and Zeigler are hardly the worst 3rd and 4th out there.
Any more losses then it’s just ridiculous. If you spent all of your time signing expensive 3rd QBs and 4th RBs and 3rd TEs just on the chance both top QBs or two top 3 RBs or both starting TEs went down, you’d be wasting cap space and overloading in talent. As much as STL’s ‘07 and SEA’ 08 season would’ve been nicer had they had ridiculous OL and WR depth, no one expected losing linemen and receivers left and right. You don’t and can’t prepare for those instances. Otherwise the same principles everyone would be walking around wearing life jackets with 3 option parachutes and carry flare guns with GPS capabilities and built in satellite phones when we go to the airport. Keeping him in the event of the type of cataclysm that kills a season from the start is not going to help us win. Just for reminders: We haven’t won with Battle playing a top role for us yet. How would having him in case of mass injuries make us better?
Idea #3: Extend OG David Baas
Why It’s A Good Idea: Baas is only 1 of currently 3 true OGs on our roster worth nothing. He, Rachal, and Wragge form the OG unit for the club. In more severe cases we could also move Heitmann aside if Wallace matures as a backup OC and then there’s also Snyder who stunk it up as a LG last season and lost his job to Baas. Wragge is not getting better or younger and is mostly only a run blocker whose style tends to draw holding flags and Rachal has everything it takes to be a visage of Larry Allen as a RG. But if we lose Baas to what could be a bidding war next free agency, we’re left with another big hole and either it’s an expensive veteran or it will involve a top 3 round draft pick to start all over. Sure, he hasn’t played and lot and was slated to start last year before a chest injury. But this is the type of deal where even if he falters and just becomes a backup, he’d just be a well paid backup. A 3-year extension would probably involve somewhere around 10M guaranteed: 5M of it up front in a roster bonus all this season, modest increases in salaries to the lower starting OG level and a signing bonus also involved. His cap number would jump largest for this season and be a steal years 2-4.
Idea #4: Extend LS Brian Jennings
Why It’s A Good Idea: Jennings has been one of our best troopers over the long run; a silent force. While the team has failed to make the playoffs, he has been around. When Nedney had some career years, the snaps ewere from Jennings. When Lee had an all-pro year and broke records, Jennings was the man making the snaps. Last year he proved human, having a few momentary lapses with some shaky and errant snaps. Yet in ‘07 he also had not only a lights out snapping season with Lee’s punting but had some good tackles and even got involved in a key turnover. Some long snappers are good coverage and tacklers and others are line drive snappers, that season he competed well with the former and was tops in the latter which is described in one word: rare. I’ve heard lots of whispers over the years how he intends to retire in his early 30s, avoid the wear that often leads to chronic injuries later in life, and to also leave with his youth and avoid burning out. I hope these are all wrong. Simply because I think he could be one of the best and ‘09 is his last year under contract. I’d like to give him a 4-year extension with a 2M roster bonus up front, guaranteed. On top of salaries above the league minimum in each year and some nice reporting bonuses in the last 3 seasons. We use our cap space now to afford the large bonus, which I believe he deserves, and if he changes his mind after 2-3 years, we take no hit for it. Simple as that.
Idea #4: Sign DE Kalimba Edwards
Why It’s A Good Idea: Let’s start with the reason why. Lawson has yet to show great pass rushing skills. He has bulked up to be a better front side attacker and a dependable coverage LB. Haralson has shown a strong motor and good edge moves and getting his shoulders in and under edge blockers for good pressure. But we’re dead thin for pass rushing depth. We’re hoping guys like DL Sopoaga, DE Balmer, DE Evans and DE McDonald return to be good run stoppers and rotation players, not pass rushers. Even a good breakout year by McDonald, a good year by DE Smith will not help us add the pressure we need. Recent pickup OLB Harris is a good move for the team. He has 3-4 OLB experience, especially under our DC’s style of direction and attitude, and is a good role player. He’s not a pass rusher. He’s a 2-3 sack guy in part time. Kalimba Edwards, despite years with DET featuring zero DT and little LB talent, still put up some 5+ sack seasons. Heck, last year he even did it in OAK in 14 games. We could have Edwards on a 1-year deal that includes sack incentives. It gives us a pass rushing 4-man DE, which we currently lack, and Edwards can take it off either edge at 6′6′, 265 lbs. It adds versatility to our pass rush packages, adds depth at OLB we sorely lack (and the sooner he is signed, the better he can fit our OLB role). We have the ability to use him, the need for depth and the roster space. If we refuse to make this type of move then we may as well throw the cap to the wind and make a big move for Peppers or Suggs.
My original post actually involved an option for signing CB Bly, well before CB Harris was hurt and I stood by my choice as him as the best CB for us and my reasons. Since he has been signed by us since then, I removed that from my top 5 list.
May 25th, 2009 at 10:58 am
It’s hard to disagree with any of your suggestions (as usual). I especially like the Tarell Brown extension, but I’m curious to hear why you think we shouldn’t put Goldson in the same category. Same draft class, a little bigger bonus and also playing a position of need for us. He’s shown he can play, but hasn’t really earned the starter role yet. He’s outplaying his contract and draft status with limited opportunity and club has shown the inclination to get to guys like this sooner rather than later.
I’ve been wondering about Baas. Do you think there is something on his side that is preventing this from happening (Smiley syndrome?) as it’s been obvious he’s coming to the end of his rookie deal this year. I wonder whether he’s as commited personally to being here as some of the others appear to be. I also believe he falls into that time warp where he won’t be unrestricted unless we get a new CBA in the next year which adds some confusion to the negotiations. I’d be surprised if the team hasn’t tried to kick off negotions by now but I haven’t seen anything published.
As for Battle, I also see him as the odd man out but there isn’t much point to releasing him now. I’d wait until later to make the move unless the club would see his release as an opportunity for him to catch on elsewhere and wants to reward him for his service here. At this point he’s little more than insurance against a rash of injuries and a potential cap savings of $1.5mm.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Goldson is hardly as standout, in my opinion. He hasn’t really overcome anyone on the roster other than and Roman was not only not around to keep his spot but is also terrible. Brown I see as someone continually improving and there’s one bigger difference too. Brown is 2nd round talent that we got late for a steal, Goldson was never top talent. We got Brown based on bad character rumors and he has improved, Goldson has yet to really shine.
Negotiations aren’t always public. They never announced they were talking to Walker last year or Robinson when they got extensions. Besides, this FO is classic for saying nothing until the official press conference. Even if a guy has talked and agreed to terms, they won’t say a peep until he is inked and then announced.
I don’t think Battle is a guy who deserves to be “you get a spot if someone else goes down”, honestly, unless he really wants to stay that badly. Meanwhile, I think we do owe it to him. Besides, given our TE depth, run blocking OL, and RB depth, to suddenly need many 4-WR sets would be shocking. Heck, 3-WR sets may be about as aggressive as we get with a receiving TE too. Having our ‘best’ as a 4th or 5th WR after 1-2 big injuries is still a guy who will likely play special teams.
May 25th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
I’m not going to be surprised if Goldson gets a new deal soon. That said, I posted previously that Brown is the priority too, but just wanted to point out that there is a good case for Goldson to get bumped and I agree with your reasoning there.
What I was fishing for with Baas (no pun intended) was any scoop on him that might relate to this not happening prior. I really expected something in the offseason. Remember, the team leaked that they were negotiating with Smiley and weren’t close. Also, agree that we almost never hear of these deals - Haralson was another - until they are signed.
Another advantage to dropping Battle now is that it will give them a chance to try some of the others at return duties. When Rossum went down last year, we didn’t have much of an answer. I like your point on 4 receiver sets - we really don’t need more than five guys this year unless there is a good return guy/special teamer in there somewhere that we can hide on the practice squad or keep on the 53 without dressing them until needed.
May 26th, 2009 at 3:41 am
Wiz and ModMatt — good comments. With regard to Baas, this is purely a guess, but I think he and his agent watched the off-season closely and may feel they gained leverage in their negotiations. No guard was added in FA or the draft (and we already know Snyder is not an answer), leaving the team razor thin at the position. And while EH could move over from center, the team will not want to move him now that he is the established leader — and its further compounded by Wallace’s apparent bust-like play to date. (Note that none of the beat guys even mention him as in the picture.) Baas and his agent may be trying to use this to their advantage; however, knowing how Scot feels about paying guards, that may be a mistake if they want to stay in SF long term.
One guy to consider extending at the end of this season is Rachal. If he continues to look like a beast, make the call early and do a long-term deal before he gets really expensive…
May 26th, 2009 at 11:51 am
I was wondering what all of your thoughts are on possibly signing Greg Ellis, if he is released. Jerry Jones has said he expects him to be released, he is a proven pass rusher, and could be effective for a few more years as a 3rd down rusher. He would be an upgrade over any backup OLBs we have now. Plus, if we sign Ellis to a multi year contract (2-3 years) and Lawson doesn’t work out this year, we have a viable option in Ellis. Just a thought..
May 26th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
The team already has a set stance on simply not investing heavily into the OG positions. There’s always good 2nd to 4th round talent that can move DTs and be built up. It’s not a first or second round required role and it’s cheaper to keep a rolling basis going as opposed to investing in a high priced veteran. With that, I think they were looking to the draft for a value pick but one never came.
Now I think you’re right in that Baas does have leverage but I wouldn’t push Wallace into it. The team didn’t make a mistake in Wallace. Keep in mind our staff were there when he got ’shoved up and down the field’ by DTs at senior week practices. It’s the fact that he’s a very smart OC and has great character and they expect him to beef up into the role. There’s plenty of kids with muscle with poor technique and can’t play the game inside themselves. We went for one with everything in place but the bulk and will give him time to make it happen.
I suggested Rachal on my list of likely guys to extend next offseason. Family issues and , I expect him to be a Gore re-run. A guy who showed a lot his rookie year who will surprise a lot his 2nd season, he could get some pro bowl votes.
As for Ellis, he is a very good possibility. The only problem is what happens with Lawson finally shows his stuff. Ellis is a starter and probably would want to compete. Although I can’t deny, would bring a definite bigger boost than say, Kalimba Edwards. I’m just curious how that would play in with Harris as well.
May 29th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Interesting comment on Wallace. But color me from Missouri on this one. If you have to invest that much into getting a guy ready to even play at this level, I think you pull the trigger in the 7th round, not the 4th. But that’s just my opinion. Here’s the good news: EH appears entrenched a C for another 3-5 years, so if you’re right, CW can be Hulk Hogan at that point. But honestly, given the other needs on this team last year — and capable centers in EH, Wragge and even Baas in a pinch, I still say it was a bad pick.
May 29th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Difference of opinions. If we were a passing offense that didn’t use inside blocking heavily and we faced few 3-4 teams, Wallace could be a starter for us next season easily. While you may think he was only worth a 7th, plenty of teams were quite happy to make a move earlier than that to get him. At that point, every player has limitations you will find. CB’s have ‘tight hips’, OL lack power or quick feet, WRs don’t run full routes or have sloppy hands, etc. That’s why they fell.
May 30th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Fair point.
June 4th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Well, despite recommendations here, Staley got the first bump. To be fair, I believe this was mentioned early along in the same breath with PW. I’m guessing he’s next.
Kudos to the FO for being proactive about locking up the key parts for the long term. Staley mentioned that this was brewing for some time and he was approached early in the off-season.
June 5th, 2009 at 10:26 am
In Crumpacker’s article on the Staley extension he mentions a list of recent extensions that includes Baas. Did this slip by everyone or does Crumpacker have his head up his butt?
June 5th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Apparently the latter as Crumpacker has deleted Baas’ name from the list of extensions.
June 8th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I’m never going to claim to have all of the answers but just to make a point…from my original 5 recommendations…we have both signed Bly (and written before Harris got hurt…) and now extended Jennings.
I’m not all too happy about the Staley deal but there is some upside. We will eat half his guarantees this year alone with our massive cap space. On his side, if he pulls a pro bowl or two in the next 3 years, he can go back to the board. His deal won’t be swamped in long-term bonuses. It’s very similar in structure to what Clements got without the huge back-loading.